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Are Gold Stocks a “Risk-On” or “Insurance” Asset?

Monday, December 10, 2012, 12:52pm EST Written by GoldAlert Staff.
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Outlook for Gold Sector

GOLD STOCKS NEWS – Gold stocks advanced on Monday, as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) jumped by as much as $0.74, or 1.6%, to $46.67 per share in morning trading.  In doing so, the gold stocks ETF looked to post its largest single-day gain since November 19th.

Today’s rally in gold stocks represented a welcome respite for investors, as the sector has come under substantial selling pressure in recent weeks.  Since the end of October, the GDX has fallen 11.8% and is remains lower on a year-to-date basis by 9.3%.

Due in large part to the gold stocks sector’s weakness and its underperformance relative to the price of gold, several investors and analysts have taken a more bullish stance of late.  One noteworthy individual in this camp is Dr. John Hussman, founder of The Hussman Funds.  In his latest Weekly Market Comment, Hussman noted that his Strategic Total Return Fund raised its gold stocks exposure to 15% of assets.

“While many investors seem to believe that physical gold is somehow superior to the equities, this reflects a misunderstanding between spot markets and discounted values, in my view,” Hussman wrote. “Physical gold trades on the spot market, while gold shares are essentially a claim on the long-term stream of cash flows that a gold company is expected to achieve.”

(Get more gold sector analysis, plus rankings of more than 90 gold and silver stocks at GoldAlert Pro – http://pro.goldalert.com)

He went on to say that “If investors believe that an advance in gold prices is likely to be short-lived, gold shares may not advance proportionately. On that basis, my impression is that investors have really not bought into any long-term inflation concern, and are treating gold shares primarily as a ‘risk on’ asset instead of as an ‘insurance’ asset. Accordingly, the ratio of the spot gold price to the Philadelphia Gold Index (XAU) is presently near the historic high it reached during the credit crisis, and several gold shares presently have higher dividend yields than the S&P 500 itself – a remarkable change from historical norms.”

Hussman concluded by noting that “Though our allocation to precious metals shares remains moderate given the potential for investors to continue treating them as a ‘risk on’ asset, any shift toward expectations of durably elevated gold prices (even without higher levels than at present) seems likely to primarily benefit the shares rather than the metal.”

Wednesday, December 5, 2012, 11:54am EST

Premier Gold Mines Completes Royalty Transaction

PREMIER GOLD MINES (PG.TSX) announced that it has completed the previously announced business combination of its royalty subsidiary and Bridgeport Ventures Inc to form a new publicly traded entity, Premier Royalty Inc., continuing under symbol BPV.TSX. The Canadian-based gold company also noted that Premier Royalty's common shares and certain warrants have been conditionally approved to trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols "NSR", "NSR.WT" and "NSR.WT.A", respectively. The change is expected to be implemented next week under a separate announcement. Full Premier Gold Mines Press Release.
PREMIER GOLD MINES Red Lake DiggingDeep in the Hardrock MinesDescending to find Saddle Gold

HIGHLIGHTS:

  • All existing directors and management of Bridgeport resigned, other than Hugh Snyder and Shastri Ramnath who will continue as directors of New Bridgeport
  • Premier Gold Mines will have the right to nominate six of the eight directors of New Bridgeport and the new management team shall be set by Premier Gold
  • Premier Royalty features a high quality cash-flowing royalty portfolio on several gold mines across North America, South America, and Africa
  • The newly-created company also has several promising earlier stage exploration and development royalties in its pipeline

Abraham Drost, Chairman of Premier Royalty:

"With a number of cash-flowing royalties in place and a pipeline of earlier stage royalty assets, the close of this transaction marks a promising launch for Premier Royalty Inc. and a fruitful outcome for Bridgeport and Premier Gold. We look forward to maintaining a track record of growth organically and through the acquisition of additional cash flowing and near-term cash flowing royalties with a focus on stable jurisdictions in the Americas and elsewhere.”

 

PREMIER GOLD MINES VS. S&P 500, XAU
PREMIER GOLD MINES vs S&P500 and XAU

Shastri Ramnath, Bridgeport President and CEO:

"The acquisition of Premier Royalty by Bridgeport will expose Bridgeport shareholders to a well-managed company with a diversified portfolio of gold royalty assets, many of which are in production and operated by prominent gold producers and will form the core of a business with excellent growth potential, particularly in the current economic climate."

 

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