With gold futures oscillating around the $1,600 per ounce level on Monday, the yellow metal is now 16.8% below its $1,923 all-time high reached on September 6th of this year. As gold has tumbled in recent months, sentiment toward the yellow metal has fallen in-kind.
While gold sentiment has experienced several meaningful drops since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008, the latest decline is now the most significant in three years. As of last Thursday, MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus reading for gold came in at 58% – the lowest since December 2008 – according to MarketWatch’s Peter Brimelow. Prior to that, it reached 49% in September 2008. In September 2011, alternatively, it surged to 88%. At other times in recent years, levels over 90% have been associated with intermediate-term tops in the gold price.
Sentiment has historically been one of the most accurate contrarian indicators for gold prices, and therefore suggests that the yellow metal may now be at or near an intermediate-term bottom.
However, it is important to note that sentiment is only one of many bullish or bearish factors that influence even short-term movements in the price of gold.



