A Greek default and/or exit from the euro zone could lead to a wave of unintended consequences that make what has transpired thus far in Europe look “benign,” according to Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist Joachim Fels.
By suggesting that Greece could be kicked out of the euro zone if it fails to accept recently-approved bailout and austerity measures, euro zone officials may have opened up a “pandora’s box” of problems, Fels wrote in a note to clients this past weekend.
The idea of a Greek exit from the euro has been “so far a taboo in European political circles,” Fels asserted. However, “European governments may have set in motion a sequence of events which could potentially lead to runs on sovereigns and banks in peripheral countries that make everything we have seen so far in this crisis look benign.”
While Fels’ note was written prior to George Papandreou’s resignation last evening, uncertainty abounds in Athens as the nation has exhibited a track record of failing to properly implement austerity measures and severely testing European policymakers’ patience. Furthermore, with the yield on 1-year Greek debt surging above 200% last week, the bond markets clearly think that a Greek default is inevitable.

