Greece has a 100% chance of defaulting, according to noted financial historian Niall Ferguson.
Ferguson, a history professor at Harvard University and a Bloomberg Television contributing editor, presented his dire outlook for the Greek debt crisis in an interview this morning.
“The key point here is that this has moved from being a crisis of public finance on the periphery,” according to Ferguson, “to being a major institutional conflict between the biggest economy in the European Union (EU) and the European Central Bank (ECB).”
Ferguson also noted that Greece has a history of defaults going back to the early 19th century. When asked on a scale of 1 to 10 what the chances of another default are, he responded with a ten.
The Harvard professor’s comments follow yet another downgrade of Greek debt yesterday by Standard & Poor’s, which reduced its rating to CCC, the lowest rating among any sovereign nation it covers. In its report, S&P wrote that Greece is “likely to restructure its debt.”
Despite the dire predictions from Ferguson and S&P, the euro currency advanced on Tuesday against the U.S. dollar, by 0.4% to 1.4429 in late morning trading.

